BHP Group Limited
BHPBasic Materials · Stock · semiannual payer
Forward Yield
4.38%
Annual Dividend
$3.96
Payout Ratio
69%
5-Yr Growth
-1.4%
Ex-Date
Sep 4, 2026
Frequency
Semiannual
Summary
As of September 2026, BHP Group Limited (BHP) yields 4.38% ($3.96 per share annually), with a blended fair-value estimate of $75.06 — -17% downside, so it screens as overvalued. Dividend safety grade: C (56/100).
Is BHP a good dividend stock?
MixedBHP Group Limited (BHP) pays a semiannual dividend yielding 4.38% ($3.96/yr), with 0 years of growth and a dividend-safety grade of C. The picture is mixed — the dividend pays, but safety or growth signals are weaker than ideal.
Advantages
- 89% total price return over 5 years
Risks
- Cut its dividend in 2024
- Dividend has been shrinking, not growing
Key Data
- Dividend Yield
- 4.38%
- Payout Ratio
- 69%
- Annual Dividend
- $3.96
- 5-Yr Avg Growth
- -1.4%
- Ex-Dividend Date
- Sep 4, 2026
- Years of Growth
- 0
- Frequency
- semiannual
- Beta
- 0.85
- Market Cap
- $229.8B
- P/E Ratio
- 23.4
- 5-Yr Total Return
- 89%
- 52-Week Range
- $51.83 – $98.71
- Dividend Safety
- C · 56/100
- Ever Cut?
- Yes (2024)
Frequently Asked Questions
BHP Price — Last 12 Months
Daily close
Price Return
1 Year
+62%
3 Years
+59%
5 Years
+89%
52-Week Range
$51.83 – $98.71
Price change over each period (excludes dividends). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
What is BHP worth?
Overvaluedhigh confidenceOur blended fair-value estimate for BHP Group Limited is $75.06 per share, versus a market price of $90.42. That implies 17% of downside.
Fair Value
$75.06
Current Price
$90.42
Downside
-17%
Margin of Safety
-20%
How we get there
Discounted cash flow
Discounts projected free cash flow back to today.
Dividend discount
Discounts the future dividend stream back to today.
Earnings multiple (Graham)
Graham's earnings-multiple formula, anchored to bond yields.
At today's price, the market is pricing in about 8.3% annual free-cash-flow growth. We model 5.3% — so the price already assumes faster growth than we think is likely.
Assumptions: 8.5% discount rate (CAPM), 5.3% stage-1 growth, 2.5% terminal growth, $3.86 EPS, $3.96 annual dividend. Updated weekly.
Fair-value estimates are model output for educational purposes only — not investment advice or a price target.
BHP Dividend Safety Score
Borderline
SmarterDividends' proprietary score, backtested against which dividends were actually cut over 15+ years (0.78 AUC). It blends a validated cut-risk model (growth streak, cut history) with current payout, cash-flow and debt. Higher is safer · not investment advice.
Dividend Growth
Total dividends per share by year
Dividend History
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | — | $1.9800 | regular |
| Mar 6, 2026 | — | $1.4600 | regular |
| Mar 7, 2025 | — | $1.0000 | regular |
| Sep 13, 2024 | — | $1.4800 | regular |
| Mar 7, 2024 | — | $1.4400 | regular |
| Sep 7, 2023 | — | $1.6000 | regular |
| Mar 9, 2023 | — | $1.8000 | regular |
| Sep 1, 2022 | — | $3.5000 | regular |
| Feb 24, 2022 | — | $2.6762 | regular |
| Sep 2, 2021 | — | $3.5682 | regular |
| Mar 4, 2021 | — | $1.8020 | regular |
| Sep 3, 2020 | — | $0.9813 | regular |
| Mar 5, 2020 | — | $1.1597 | regular |
| Sep 5, 2019 | — | $1.3916 | regular |
Income Calculator
At $3.96 / yr per share
